FORECASTING SECONDARY SCHOOL ENROLLMENT AND TEACHER DEMAND USING MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS APPROACH
Manpower
Requirements Approach is one of the forecasting tools used in planning. It has
the ability to give accurate and precise projections, for example the following
is a case study of how this approach is used in Kenya to forecast student
enrolment and teacher demand in the year 2012. To do this, five key issues are
identified namely: number
of teachers, teacher wastage rate, and trend of transition rate, students’
wastage rate trend and secondary schools establishment.
Data was collected utilizing
questionnaire, interviews and document analysis from the District Education
Offices and Central Bureau of Statistics.
Secondary School Teacher Recruitment
The study intended to establish the
number of teachers working in secondary schools in Nandi North and South
districts in the year 2007.
Gender of Teacher
The table below shows the number and gender of
teachers recruited at the secondary school level in Nandi North and South in
the year 2007.
Number of
Secondary School Teachers in 2007 by Gender
Gender
|
Number of Teachers
|
Percentage
|
Male
|
690
|
66.03
|
Female
|
355
|
33.97
|
TOTAL
|
1045
|
100
|
Source: District Education
Offices. Nandi North and Nandi South 2007.
As
shown in table above, in 2007, there were a total of 1045 teachers at the secondary
school level in Nandi North and Nandi South Districts. The male teachers were
690 and constituted 66.03 percent while female teachers were 355 and
constituted 33.97 percent of the total secondary school teacher population. Therefore, the male teachers were almost
twice as many as the number of female teachers. This seems to imply that there
is gender disparity in the teaching force since the female teachers are
disproportionately represented.
Age Distribution of Teachers
The age distribution of teachers in secondary schools in the
two districts is important in this study. The 1045 teachers currently teaching
in secondary schools in the two district fall under various age brackets. The
table below shows the distribution of teachers along various age groups.
Age Group
|
Number of Teachers
|
Percentage
|
50 years and above
|
50
|
4.78
|
40 to 49 years
|
247
|
23.64
|
30 to 39 years
|
711
|
68.04
|
29 years and below
|
37
|
3.54
|
TOTAL
|
1045
|
100
|
Source: District Education
Offices. Nandi North and Nandi South.
According to ages, there were
fewer teachers who were 29 years old and below, this age bracket represented a
small percentage of 3.54 which translated to 37 teachers. Teachers who were 50 years and above were
also few since they were only 50
in number and they formed 4.78 percent of the total
number of teachers in both districts.
There were relatively more teachers in the 40 to 49 year age bracket;
they were 247 in
number and represented 23.64 percent.
The highest number of teachers in the districts fell between the ages of
30 to 39. This age group had a total of
711 teachers forming a percentage of 68.04 of the total teacher population in
the two districts. Teachers who were
between 30 to 39 years old were more than half of all the teachers in both
districts. This seems to imply that by the target year (2012) 50 teachers would
have retired and those who are expected to still be in service would be 995 teachers.
Teacher Qualifications
Teachers in the
two districts have varied levels of academic qualifications as indicated in the
table below
Qualification
|
Number of Teachers
|
Percentage
|
Bachelor of Education
|
768
|
73.49
|
Diploma
|
213
|
20.38
|
Certificate
|
28
|
2.68
|
Masters degree
|
27
|
2.58
|
Untrained graduate teacher
|
9
|
0.87
|
TOTAL
|
1045
|
100
|
Source: District
Education Offices. Nandi North and Nandi South
There were 9
untrained graduate teachers who formed only 0.87 percent of the total teacher
population. Teachers with masters degree
were 27 representing 2.56 percent closely followed by the teachers who had
qualified with a certificate who were 28 and represented 2.68 percent. Diploma teachers formed a fairly large
percentage of 20.38 translating to 213 teachers whereas those representing the
largest percentage of 73.49 (768) are the teachers who have graduated with
Bachelors of Education. This last category
is by far more than half of the entire population of teachers in both Nandi
North and Nandi South Districts. This seems to imply that the majority of
teachers in these districts are qualified to teach at the secondary school
level. This accede with the claim by Bogonko (1992) that after independence,
the Kenyan government embarked on a more elaborate programme of training
secondary school teachers so as to
increase the bank of local teachers.
Teacher Employer
Not all the teachers in the two
districts are employees of Teachers’ Service Commission. The table below shows
the number of teachers and their employers who are the TSC and the BOG.
Employer
|
Number of teachers
|
Percentage (%)
|
TSC
|
944
|
90.33
|
BOG
|
101
|
9.67
|
TOTAL
|
1045
|
100
|
Source: District Education
Offices. Nandi North and Nandi South.
The table indicated that the
number of teachers employed by the Teachers’ Service Commission was 944
(90.33%) whereas 101 teachers (9.67%) were employed by the Boards of Governors
of various schools. TSC is supposed to
be the sole employer of teachers but the Boards of Governors of schools are
forced to come in and provide a solution whenever there is shortage of teachers
in schools. This seems to imply that there are inadequate numbers of teachers
in the two districts employed by the T.S.C. This seems to concur with Kamotho
(2007) who observed that although staffing in public schools is supposed to be
the main business of the government through the Teachers’ Service Commission,
this has remained a critical challenge since the commission was established in
1967.
Teacher Shortage
There is teacher shortage and
this has led to the Boards of Governors of schools to step in and employ
additional teachers to address this shortage. The researcher sought, through
interviews to know the causes of teacher shortage and the responses are as
discussed below.
There were 1,045 teachers in
Nandi North and Nandi South Districts but the districts still call for more
teachers because the ratio of teachers to students is far above the recommended
ratios. The number of students joining secondary schools each year is on the
increase and does not therefore; match the number of teachers available.
Another reason given by the interviewees is that the number of new schools
coming up each year is also on the increase and so there is need for employment
of more teachers by the Teachers’ Service Commission (T.S.C). In this view
therefore, this study does not concur with the Government’s policy, which
advocated for a freeze on teacher employment from 1998; the Teachers Service
Commission (T.S.C) is only allowed to replace those teachers who leave the
profession due to natural attrition (Birgen, 2003). The interviewees observed
that many new secondary schools in the two districts face acute teacher
shortage as compared to secondary schools, which started operating earlier
on.
Teacher shortage
in secondary schools in the two districts is also occasioned by attrition. Each year there are a number of teachers who
opt out of the teaching profession. Some teachers leave the profession due to retirement;
others retire early as a result of sickness whereas other teachers opt out of
the teaching profession in favour of other occupations. Death is another factor
that leads to teacher shortage as well as dismissal of teachers by the T.S.C on
disciplinary grounds.
Another reason that leads to teacher shortage in Nandi
North and Nandi South Districts as indicated by those people who were
interviewed is poor career choice. A number of teachers did not choose teaching
as a profession, they only landed there as a last resort and whenever an
opportunity in a profession of their choice presents itself, they always opt
out very quickly hence creating a shortage. This study is in agreement with Republic of Kenya (2004), which called for the
admission of people who give teaching a first priority in their list of career
choices into teacher training institutions. Okumbe (1999) also observed that
teachers in developing countries have been conscripted into the teaching
profession; thus the profession has two lots of teachers: those who chose the
profession for intrinsic reasons, and those who, for reasons beyond their
control, have found themselves in the profession.
Annual Teacher Increment
The number of
secondary school teachers in the two districts has been increasing over the
years. The following table indicates the number of teachers recruited from the
year 2003 to 2007 and their increase in absolute numbers and percentages.
Year
|
Recruitment
|
Increase
|
Percentage
|
2003
|
920
|
-
|
-
|
2004
|
935
|
15
|
1.63
|
2005
|
952
|
17
|
1.82
|
2006
|
996
|
44
|
4.62
|
2007
|
1045
|
49
|
4.92
|
Source: District Education
Offices. Nandi North and Nandi South.
From the table there were 920
secondary school teachers in 2003 and in 2004 there was an increase of 15
(1.63%) teachers brings the total number to 935. There was an increase of 17 (1.82%) teachers
in 2005 bringing the number of teachers that year to 952. In the year 2006 there were 996 teachers
having recorded an increase of 44 (4.62%) teachers and in the year 2007 there
was an increase of 49 (4.92%) teachers hence a total of 1045 teachers. This
seems to imply that each year there is an increment in the number of teachers.
Projection of Annual Teacher Increment
The annual teacher increase from
2003 to 2007 was 3.25%. This rate was arrived at by taking the average of the
increment over the five year period as presented on the table above.
Wastage in Secondary Schools
Teacher wastage refers to the
number of teachers who leave the teaching profession. Teachers can leave the
profession for a number of reasons including early retirement dismissals, death
and moving to other careers (Kamotho, 2007).
The number of secondary school
teachers in the two districts varied over the years. The table below shows the number of teachers
from the year 2003 to 2007 and the number of teachers that left the profession
each year.
Year
|
Recruitment
|
Attrition
|
Percentage [%]
|
2003
|
920
|
14
|
1.52
|
2004
|
935
|
17
|
1.82
|
2005
|
952
|
16
|
1.68
|
2006
|
996
|
18
|
1.81
|
2007
|
1045
|
17
|
1.63
|
Source: District Education
Offices. Nandi North and Nandi South.
As shown in this table, 14 teachers representing 1.52%
left the profession in 2003, 17 teachers representing 1.82% left the profession
in 2004 and in 2005, 16 teachers representing 1.68% left the profession, in
2006, 18 teachers representing 1.81% left the profession whereas 1.63% that is
17 teachers left the teaching profession in 2007. This seems to imply that
there is a reduction in the number of teachers each year. However, comparing
the teacher increment as given on Table 4.6 and teacher wastage as given in
Table 4.7, the number leaving is lower than those joining the profession. The
net effect therefore, is that there is an annual increase in the absolute number
of teachers in spite of the wastage.
Causes of Teacher Wastage
As
shown in the table above there is teacher wastage in the two districts. The
researcher, through interviews, sought to establish the causes of teacher
wastage and the responses indicated that teachers leave the profession because
of death, retirement, sickness, interdiction and changing professions. Below is
a discussion of these causes of wastage, as given by the interviewees.
Some
interviewees observed that one cause of teacher attrition is retirement. Teachers who have attained the age of
fifty–five (55) years are expected to retire from the teaching profession. From
data collected and analyzed, there are 50 teachers from the two districts who
will have retired by the target year (2012). Death is another cause of teacher
attrition in the two districts. A number of teachers are lost through death
each year and the leading cause of death according to the interviewees is
HIV/AIDS related illnesses. Other causes
of death are accidents, other sicknesses and suicide among others.
Interdiction of teachers and
subsequent dismissal by the Teachers’ Service Commission (T.S.C) on
disciplinary grounds is another cause of teacher wastage according to the
responses given by those who were interviewed. Other teachers opt for early
retirement for different reasons. One reason for early retirement is due to
sickness whereas others choose to retire early from the teaching profession so
as to join other sectors of the economy.
A good number of teachers opt
out of the teaching profession so as to join other professions. This shifting
of professions is occasioned by poor career choice right from secondary school.
Often many teachers who had not chosen teaching as their career end up in the
teaching profession because of some reasons. These are the teachers who leave
the profession whenever they find an opportunity in careers of their choice.
Teachers opt out of the teaching
profession to join other sectors that have better terms and conditions of
service especially better remuneration. The interviewees observed that teachers
are poorly remunerated and as a result most of them are continuously searching
for greener pastures and leave whenever they find a place offering a higher
pay.
Projection of Teacher Wastage
Based on the information given
on Table 4.7 on teacher wastage rate from 2003 to 2007, teacher wastage trend
was determined by taking the average of the wastage rate over the last five
years. It follows therefore, that the annual teacher wastage rate stands at
1.70% per year.
Forecast of the Number of Teachers in 2008 to 2012 using Manpower Requirements Approach
From the information presented on number to
teachers, projected annual teacher increase and projected annual teacher wastage
rate, the number of teachers in secondary schools in the year 2012 can be
forecasted. The table below gives the
forecast of the number of teachers from 2008 to 2012, the base year is 2007 and
the number of teachers in that year was 1045.
Year
|
Increment
|
Number of Teachers
|
Wastage
|
Number of Teachers
|
2008
|
34
|
1079
|
18
|
1061
|
2009
|
34
|
1095
|
19
|
1076
|
2010
|
35
|
1111
|
19
|
1092
|
2011
|
35
|
1127
|
19
|
1108
|
2012
|
36
|
1144
|
19
|
1125
|
This table shows that the projected number of teachers in
the year 2008 will be 1,079, after an increase of 34 teachers from the 1,045
teachers in 2007; however wastage of 18 teachers is expected to bring down the
number of teachers to 1,061. In 2009 an
increment of 34 teachers is expected and the wastage will be 19 thus there will
be a total of 1,076 teachers. In 2010
the expected number of teachers is 1,092 after an anticipated increase of 35
teachers and wastage of 19 teachers. The
number of teachers in 2011 is projected to be 1,108 after an increase of 35 and
wastage of 19 teachers, and in the target year (2012) the number of teachers is
expected to be 1,125 after an increase of 36 teachers and wastage of 19
teachers.
Students’ Transition Rate from Primary to Secondary Schools
Students’
transition rate from primary to secondary schools refers to the ratio of
students who proceed to secondary schools upon successful completion of the
primary school curriculum. The table below shows the transition rate of
students from primary to secondary schools in Nandi North and South districts
from the year 2002 to 2007.
Year
|
Number
of Students in Standard Eight
|
Year
|
Enrolment
in Form One
|
Transition
Rate
|
2002
|
13560
|
2003
|
4729
|
34.87
|
2003
|
13906
|
2004
|
5460
|
39.26
|
2004
|
15019
|
2005
|
5663
|
37.71
|
2005
|
14795
|
2006
|
6768
|
45.75
|
2006
|
14406
|
2007
|
7270
|
50.47
|
Source: District Education
Offices. Nandi North and Nandi South.
Students
who sit for the Kenya Certificate of Secondary Education (KCPE) and those who
enroll in form one has been on the increase although the transition rate
generally is still low. In 2002 there were 13,560 students who sat for K.C.P.E
and in 2003 the number of students who were admitted to form one in both
districts was 4,729 representing a transition rate of 34.87 percent. In 2003, the number of students who did
K.C.P.E was 13,906 out of which 5,460 students joined form one in 2004 and the
transition rate that year was 39.26 percent.
The two districts admitted a total of 5,663 students to form one in 2005
having registered 15,019 candidates for K.C.P.E the previous year and so the
transition rate was 37.71 percent. In
the year 2005 there were 14,795 students who sat for KCPE in the two districts
and a total of 6,768 students were enrolled in form one the subsequent year,
this represented a transition rate of 45.75 percent and in 2006, the number of
students who were in standard eight in the two districts were 14,406 and 7,270
students joined form one the subsequent year which represented a transition
rate of 50.47 percent. This seems to imply that over 50% of the primary school
graduates are locked out of the secondary school system. This appears to be in agreement with Republic of Kenya (2004), which observed that the
transition rate of students from primary to secondary schools in Kenya is below
average and that in 2004, this rate was 43% nation wide.
Causes of Low Transition Rate
The table above indicates the
transition rates in the two districts of Nandi between 2003 and 2007. The low
transition rate appears to reflect the general national trend. This study
sought to understand the reasons for the low transition rate through interviews
and the responses are discussed below.
Transition rate of students from
primary to secondary schools in the two districts just like in the whole
country is below average. According to those interviewed, they observed that
most of the students who successfully complete the primary school curriculum
fail to proceed to secondary schools because of a number of reasons. One reason
was the poverty level; most parents in the two districts are poor and are not
able raise money for the payment of school fees hence their children end up not
proceeding to secondary schools. Performance was another factor that led to low
transition rates from primary to secondary schools. A number of students
perform poorly in the Kenya Certificate of Primary Education [KCPE] and as a
result they fail to secure places in secondary schools.
The number of secondary school places was by
far less than the number of students who would wish to join those schools;
therefore, such students end up not enrolling in secondary schools. The culture
of the residents of the two districts was another factor contributing to the
low transition rates. The girl child was discriminated against as parents were
willing to educate the boy child up to higher levels because they are deemed as
future breadwinners whereas girls are not given a chance to proceed with their
education especially after completion of primary school since they are deemed
ready for marriage. Early marriage therefore was another factor that led to the
low transition rate in the districts. Early pregnancy was also another factor;
most girls fail to continue with their education because of pregnancy, even
after delivering and thereafter weaning off their babies, their parents are not
willing to help the girls in the upbringing of their young children so as to
give them a chance to proceed with their education. This concurs with Luseno (1999) who found out
that although the enrolment of girls is quite impressive, more girls than boys
drop out of the education system.
Orphans also contribute to the
low transition rate. Many children cannot proceed to secondary schools because
they are orphaned and so they do not have parental and financial support.
HIV/AIDS is a leading cause of death and as a result, many children are left
under the care of their old grandparents who are no longer productive and are
not in a position to meet the financial needs of educating their grandchildren.
Other students opt not to proceed to secondary schools because they have a
burden of taking care of their younger siblings upon the death of their
parents, yet other students fail to continue with their education because there
is need for them to nurse their parents who are ailing as a result of the
HIV/AIDS scourge.
Disability also contributes to
the low transition rate in the two districts. A good number of students with
disabilities who successfully complete the primary school curriculum fail to
proceed to secondary schools because of lack of special secondary schools for
students with disabilities. In both Nandi North and Nandi South districts there
is no secondary school for special students and for this reason most of these
students fail to proceed to secondary schools. Yet another factor that leads to
the low transition rate is ignorance. Some parents in the two districts are
ignorant on the importance of secondary school education.
Projection of the Transition Rate from Primary to Secondary School
Based on the information
presented in The table above, the transition rate trend was determined by
calculating the average of the percentage of transition rate over the last five
years. The transition rates over the
last five years were 34.87%, 39.26%, 37.71%, 45.75% and 50.47%. The average
rate of transition in Nandi North and South districts over the last five (5)
years is 41.61 percent. This transition rate is slightly below the National
Transition Rate which according to Republic
of Kenya (2004) is 43
percent.
Non-Schooling Gap
Non-schooling
gap refers to the ratio of children who have attained the school-going age but fail
to enroll in the formal school system (Wako, 1988). The children who were born
in 1995 were four years old in 1999 when the National Population Census was
carried out; and these children were expected to be in class one in the year
2001. The children who were born in 1996 were expected to join class one in
2002 and those born in 1997 were expected to join the same class in 2003 and
similarly those born in 1998 were expected to be in class one in 2004. There
are a number of children who have attained the school-going age yet they have
not enrolled in the formal education system as expected, the table below gives
the non-schooling gap from the year 2001 to 2004.
Age of Children in 1999 (in
years)
|
Population of Children.
|
Year of Enrolment in Class One.
|
Number of Children Enrolled
|
Non-Schooling Gap. (%)
|
4
|
18263
|
2001
|
14463
|
20.81
|
3
|
19040
|
2002
|
14983
|
21.31
|
2
|
18912
|
2003
|
16925
|
10.51
|
1
|
16105
|
2004
|
15495
|
3.78
|
Source: Central Bureau of
Statistics: Kapsabet and District
Education Offices. Nandi North and Nandi South.
From the table above, in the
year 2001, the non-schooling gap was 20.81 percent since the number of 6 year
old children was 18,263 yet those who enrolled in school were 14,463 children;
in 2002 the gap was 21.31 percent because the number of 6 year old children was
19,040 yet those who enrolled in school were 14,983 children; in 2003 the gap
was 10.51 percent since the number of 6 year old children was 18,912 yet those
who enrolled in school were 16,925 children and in 2004 the gap dropped to 3.78
percent as the number of 6 year old children was 16,105 yet those who enrolled
in school were 15,495 children. This seems to imply that if the government
declares that the primary school level of education is compulsory then the gap
will tend to zero. This is in agreement with Republic of Kenya
(2004) that advocates for Free Primary Education to be made compulsory and to
enact a law to effect it.
Reasons for the Non-Schooling Gap
Not all the children who have
attained the school going age have enrolled in the formal education
system as seen in the table above. The researcher found out through an
interview that there are a number of reasons that hinder such students from
enrolling in school, these include distance of school from home, disabilities,
financial constraint, ignorance and scarcity of special education trained
teachers and institutions.
A number of children have failed to enroll in the formal
school system as a result of the distance between their homes and school, which
is at times fairly far. Children whose parents live far away from educational
institutions may end up not enrolling in school.
Disability is another cause of
children failing to enroll. Most parents in the two districts have not allowed
their children with physical challenges to enroll in school. Other children who
are physically challenged fail to enroll because there are very few schools in
the two districts for children with special needs and also the number of
special education trained teachers is far much less than the number of students
with special needs and as a result the student- teacher ratios are very high
and also most children end up not enrolling at all. Some children with special
needs also do not enroll in school because of fear of stigmatization.
Financial constraint is also
another major factor that hinders children from enrolling in schools. Children
whose parents are financially unstable tend not to enroll in formal education
since there are indirect costs even in cases where the government has offered
Free Primary Education [FPE].
Ignorance is another factor that
hinders children from enrolling in formal education system. Some parents in the
two districts were ignorant of the importance of education, because of such
ignorance they ended up not taking their children to school.
Wastage Rate
Wastage rate refers to the
number of students who join the first class or form but do not proceed to the
final class or form in the same cohort. Such students either repeat some
classes or forms or they drop out of the education system (Wako, 1988).
Wastage Rate in Primary Schools
Wastage in primary schools
refers to the students who enrolled in class one but fail to reach class eight after eight years. These
students either repeat other classes or they drop out of the school system. The
table below indicates the number of children who enrolled in class one from
1995 to 1999 and the number of children who were in class eight as from 2002 to
2006. The table also gives wastage in terms of absolute numbers and also the
same rate expressed as a percentage.
Year
|
Enrolment in Class One
|
Year
|
Enrolment in Class Eight
|
Wastage
|
Percentage
|
1995
|
15,396
|
2002
|
13,560
|
1836
|
11.92
|
1996
|
15,490
|
2003
|
13,906
|
1584
|
10.23
|
1997
|
16,783
|
2004
|
15,019
|
1764
|
10.51
|
1998
|
16,498
|
2005
|
14,795
|
1703
|
10.32
|
1999
|
16,362
|
2006
|
14,406
|
1956
|
11.95
|
Source:
District Education Offices. Nandi North and Nandi South. 2007.
The table indicates that student
wastage rate in primary schools varies from year to year. The number of students who enrolled in class
one in 1995 was 15, 396 and the number of students who managed to reach class eight
in the year 2002 was 13,560. Therefore,
the number of students wasted was 1,836 representing 11.92 percent. In 1996,
the enrolment in class one was 15,490 and the students who proceed up to class
eight in 2003 were 13,906 thus 1,584 students either repeated other classes or
dropped out and this number represented 10.23 percent. In the year 1997, 16,783
students enrolled in class one and out of this, 15,019 students managed to sit
for K.C.P.E. in the year 2004,
in this case therefore, 1,764 students representing
10.51 percent dropped out or repeated other classes. In 1998, there were a total of 16,498
students who were in class one out of which 14, 795 students proceeded up to
class eight in 2005. This means 1,703 students, which is equivalent to 10.32
percent, were wasted. Similarly there was a wastage of 1,956 students that is
equivalent to 11.95 percent from the 1999 to 2006 cohort, because the number of
students who enrolled in class one in 1999 was 16,362 whereas those in class
eight in 2006 were 14,406.
The implication of the cohort wastage
is that resources will not be properly utilized in these districts because the
students who repeat other grades use facilities that are meant for other
students whereas those who drop out waste the available resources as they will
be under utilized.
Projection of the Wastage Rate in Primary Schools
The table above contains
information on the wastage rate in primary school of five different cohorts.
The wastage rate trend was determined by obtaining their average. The wastage
rate trend therefore stood at 10.99%. This trend was projected to the year
2012.
Wastage Rate in Secondary Schools
Wastage rate in
secondary schools refers to the students who enroll in form one in a particular
year but fail to reach form four after
four years. A number of these students drop out while others repeat
other grades. The students who were in form one in 2000 were expected to be in
form four in 2003, those in form one in 2001 were expected to be in form four
in 2004 similarly those in form one in 2002 were expected to be in form four in
2005 and those in form one in 2003 were expected in form four in 2006. The
table below shows the students’ wastage rates of five different cohorts in
secondary schools.
Year
|
Enrolment in Form One
|
Year
|
Enrolment in Form Four
|
Wastage
|
Percentage
|
2000
|
4482
|
2003
|
4065
|
417
|
9.30
|
2001
|
4530
|
2004
|
4098
|
432
|
9.54
|
2002
|
4593
|
2005
|
4203
|
390
|
8.50
|
2003
|
4729
|
2006
|
4368
|
361
|
7.63
|
2004
|
5460
|
2007
|
5022
|
438
|
8.02
|
Source:
District Education Offices. Nandi North and Nandi South.
The wastage rate for students
who were in secondary schools between 2000 and 2003 was 9.30% because 4482
students were enrolled in form one in 2000 and 4065 students were able to go up
to form four in 2003 hence, 417 students were lost along the way. In the year 2001, there were a total of 4530
students in form one and the number that managed to reach form four in 2004 was
4098 students therefore, there was a wastage of 9.54 percent as 432 students
either dropped out or repeated other grades. In the year 2002, 4593 students
joined form one and the number that was able to go up to form four in 2005 was
4203 students giving a wastage rate of 8.50 percent (390 students). In 2003, there were 4729 students in form one
and 4368 students managed to reach form four in 2006, thus there was wastage of
7.63 percent (361 students). In the year
2004, there were 5460 students in form one and in 2007 there were 5022 students
in form four hence the wastage rate was 8.02 percent (438 students).
The wastage in secondary schools
means that there are resources that go into waste because students who repeat
some grades end up over utilizing them whereas the dropouts lead the
underutilization of resources. Although the number of students enrolled in the
primary school level is higher than the enrolment at the secondary school
level, there is a higher wastage rate at the primary school level than at the
secondary school level.
Projection of the Wastage Rate in Secondary Schools
To project the wastage rate in
secondary schools to the year 2012, the information on the table above that
gives the wastage rate trend over the last five years was made use of. The average of the percentage wastage rate
was determined at 8.60%. This wastage rate of 8.60% in secondary schools was
projected to the year 2012.
Causes of Students Wastage
Through interviews, the study
sought to find out the causes of wastage in schools. From the responses
obtained from the interviews, the causes of wastage in schools are financial
constraints due to poverty, sickness and death, students’ academic performance
and pregnancy and early marriages.
Poverty therefore, is among the causes of wastage in schools in Nandi
North and Nandi South districts. A number of parents or guardians are unable to
meet the cost of education that includes both the direct and the indirect costs
of education because they are poor.
Sickness and death is also
another leading cause of wastage in schools.
A number of children whose parents have been infected by the HIV virus
are more likely to drop out so as to nurse their parents who are ailing and in
case of death such children are expected to assume adult roles of taking care
for their younger siblings and as a result they will not proceed with their
education.
The education system is very
competitive and always, emphasis is placed on performance. The students who are unable to attain a given
cut–off point are not allowed to proceed to the next grade; therefore, they are
expected to remain in the same grade, the subsequent year. Repetition therefore is another major cause
of wastage in schools.
Among girls, pregnancy and early
marriage is another factor that contributes to wastage in schools. Abagi,
(1995) cited in Luseno, (1999) found out that the national completion rates for
girls was only 35% against 65% for boys.
Projected Secondary School Enrolment in the year 2012 using Manpower Requirements Approach
Nandi North and Nandi South
Districts will have a secondary school going age population (14 to 17 year
olds) of 72,320 children according to the 1999 National Population Census. However, a number of these children did not
enroll in the formal school system and out of those who enrolled in class one;
there are some who will not proceed up to class eight in the same cohort because
of wastage. Out of those who will go up
to class eight, a number of them will not proceed to secondary schools, and out
of those who will enroll in secondary schools, it is expected that not all of
them will go up to form four due to wastage.
The table below shows the forecast of the secondary school enrolment in
the year 2012.
Projecting Secondary School Enrolment to the
year 2012
Year
|
Enrolment
In Class
One
|
10.99%
Wastage
|
Year
|
Projected
Enrolment in Class Eight
|
(41.61%)
Transition
|
Year
|
Projected
Enrolment in Form One
|
(8.60%)
Wastage
|
Actual No. in Sec
|
2001
|
14463
|
1589
|
2008
|
12874
|
5357
|
2009
|
7517
|
646
|
6871
|
2002
|
14983
|
1647
|
2009
|
13336
|
5549
|
2010
|
7784
|
669
|
7115
|
2003
|
16925
|
1860
|
2010
|
15065
|
6269
|
2011
|
8796
|
756
|
8040
|
2004
|
15496
|
1703
|
2011
|
13793
|
5739
|
2012
|
8054
|
-
|
8054
|
As shown in this table, the
number of children who enrolled in class one in the year 2001 was 14,463
students out of this, 12,874 students are expected to be in class eight in the
year 2008 because 1,589 (10.99%) students are expected to have either repeated
other grades or dropped out of school.
In 2009, the expected enrolment in form one is 7,517 students since
5,357 students are expected to drop out of school after doing KCPE. Out of the
form one enrolment, only 6,871 students are expected to go up to form four in
the year 2012 as 646 students will have formed wastage at the secondary school
level. Class one enrolment in the year 2002 was 14,983 students, but with
10.99% wastage rate, 1,647 students are expected to either repeat or drop out
of school before reaching class eight in the year 2009. Therefore, the expected
enrolment in class eight in 2009 is 13,336 out of which 5,549 (41.61%) students
are expected to drop out or repeat leaving a total of 7,784 students who are
expected to enroll in form one in 2010 and in 2012, the number of students
expected to be in form three will be 7,115 students after 669 students forming
wastage in secondary school.
Total enrolment in
class one in the year 2003 was 16,925 students, 1,860 (10.99%) students are
anticipated to repeat or drop out leaving a total of 15,065 students who are
expected to do KCPE in the year 2010.
The number expected to drop out after the primary school level is 6,269
students and as a result, 8,796 students are expected to be in form one in
2011, subjected to wastage at 8.60%, 756 students will not proceed to form two
in the year 2012 hence the form two enrolment will be 8,040 students. In the year 2004, there were 15,496 students
in class one, subjected to the wastage rate at 10.99%, 1,703 students are not
expected to reach class eight in 2011 leaving a total of 13,793 students to sit
for K.C.P.E out of which 5,739 students will drop out, hence in the target year
(2012) the expected enrolment in form one will be 8,054 students.
This seems to imply that if the
present trend in wastage and transition rates were to continue, then out of the
secondary school going age population of 72,320 children as per the 1999
National Population Census, the number expected to enroll in secondary school
will be 30,080 students. This implies
that 42,240 children will not be able to go through the second and most important
cycle of the 8-4-4
system of education in Kenya.
Forecast of Teacher Recruitment in the year 2012 Based on the Students Teacher Ratio of 25:1
The number of teachers to be
recruited depends on the number of students to be taught. This study set out to forecast the number of
teachers required in the year 2012 based on the Student – Teacher Ratio
recommended by International Labour Organization (ILO), UNESCO and World
Bank. The ration is 25:1. The table below gives the projected secondary
school enrolment in the year 2012 which was calculated from the data presented
on Table 4.13 and the number of teachers required to teach the forecasted
number of students based on the Student - Teacher Ratio of 25:1.
Forecasted Secondary School Teacher Demand in 2012
Year
|
Projected Enrolment
|
Student - Teacher Ratio
|
Projected Teacher Requirement
|
2012
|
30,080
|
25:1
|
1,203
|
From the information presented
on the table above, the forecasted number of secondary school students in the
year 2012 was calculated and it was found to be 30,080 students. The forecasted
demand for teachers in the target year based on the Student-Teacher Ratio of
25:1 therefore is 1,203 teachers. This
implies that if the current trend of teacher increment and wastage continues
then the total number of teachers who would be in service in 2012 would be
1,125 hence; there will be a deficit of 78 teachers in the two districts in the
target year.
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