THE IMPORTANCE OF POPULATION STUDIES IN EDUCATIONAL PLANNING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

THE IMPORTANCE OF POPULATION STUDIES IN EDUCATIONAL PLANNING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Population structure and its effects on education

Studying the structure of a population means studying its composition, i.e., its distribution according to certain pre-defined criteria. Educational planners may be concerned with the distribution of the population for various reasons. First, they may be interested in its distribution by age and sex. This enables them to measure the relative size of the school-age population, which is the foundation and the point of departure for any educational policy.

Second, they may be concerned with the distribution of the population by sector of economic activity and, within each of these sectors, by occupation. Without accurate knowledge of the distribution by sector and occupation, it is impossible to estimate manpower requirements, and hence to determine targets for technical, vocational and higher education.

Third, planners may be concerned with the geographical distribution of the population, which affects both the cost of education and the choice of types, sizes and locations of schools.

Age structure of the population and educational development

Age structure and teacher requirements

The persistence of a high birth rate from 1945 to 1970, followed by a drop as from 1970, has had a considerable impact on education.

More generally, whenever the birth rate falls for one reason or another, this decrease will affect the number of children in primary education six years later, the number in secondary school 12 years later and the number in higher education 18 years later. Such a trend makes it easier to absorb the increased social demand for secondary and higher education.

The structure of the population by age can yield much other useful information for educational planning. It can be used, in particular, to measure the relative burden of expenditures on education.

Age structure and relative burden of educational expenditures

Expenditures on education are proportionate to enrollment and consequently depend indirectly on the school-age population, but the financing of education can be considered as a levy on the output of the economically active part of the population. If the school-age population is made up of children from 5 to 14 years of age inclusive, and the active population is recruited from persons aged 15 to 64, an estimate of the relative burden of educational expenditures on the active population is obtained by calculating the ratio of the 5 to 14-year-old population to the 15 to 64-year-old population.

As earlier seen, the age structure enables us to estimate the relative size of the school-age population. It also enables us to calculate school enrollment rates in order to try to answer the following question: ‘What proportion of children receive an education?’

Age structure and school enrollment rates

The gross enrollment rate is calculated as the ratio of the total number enrolled at a given educational level to the age group corresponding to the official age at that level. If, for example, primary education comprises five years of schooling and the official age of admission is six years, the gross enrollment rate in primary education is equal to:

Total number of pupils in primary education

ER _Gross     =     ——————————————————

Total 6 to 10-year-old population

This method of calculation leads to overestimation of school enrollment: Some children may be admitted early, before the official age; while others are over the official age, owing to either late admission or repetition of grades.

For this reason, a net enrollment rate is also calculated:

No. of pupils 6 to 10 years of age in primary education

ER _Net =        ——————————————————————

Total 6 to 10-year-old population

Unfortunately, the net enrollment rate has the opposite disadvantage as the gross rate: it underestimates enrollment rates, since all pupils above and below the official age range are excluded.

The enrollment rate for an entire educational level, whether gross or net, is thus not an entirely satisfactory indicator. For this reason, enrollment rates are also calculated for each year of age. The enrollment rate for 6-year-olds, for example, is equal to:

No. of 6-year-old pupils in primary education

ER _{6 years} =   ————————————————————

Total 6-year-old population

Enrollment rates by specific age are more precise than those by age group, but they do not fully dispel the ambiguity. A 6-year-old enrollment rate of less than 100 per cent does not mean that not all children are admitted to school. Some may enter school at 7 years of age, at 8, or even later still.

Population changes and their impact on educational planning

The study of population changes must take into account the trend of any increase (or, in some cases, decrease) in the population over time. The two main factors which affect this trend are natality and mortality. The combination of these two factors, plus migration, determines the changes in the size of a population.

NATALITY

The crude birth rate

This, the simplest rate, is calculated as the ratio of the number of live births during a year to the average population for that year. The average population for a year can be considered either as the population figure for 1 July of that year, or as the average of the population figures for the beginning and the end of the year.

Note that the birth rate is given per thousand, as is often the case for demographic rates. Although the crude birth rate has the advantage of being a simple rate, easily obtained from general data, it nevertheless has certain disadvantages. One of these disadvantages is that it gives the ratio of live births to the total population, whereas, in fact, only a part of the female population is capable of bearing children. Consequently, the crude birth rate will vary with the structure of the population by age and sex, or more precisely the percentage of women of childbearing age in relation to the total population. This rate, therefore, cannot be used to make comparisons between countries, because age structures may be very different in one country than in another. This is why demographers prefer to use fertility rates rather than the crude birth rate.

Fertility rates

The term ‘fertility’ is used to indicate the proportion between the number of births and the number of women of child-bearing age. A distinction can be made, however, between the general fertility rate and age-specific fertility rates.

• The general fertility rate

This rate is the ratio of live births to the number of women of child-bearing age (considered by convention to be women of 15 to 49 years). As in the case of the crude birth rate, this rate is expressed per thousand.

One of the drawbacks of the general fertility rate is that it does not give a detailed picture of natality. It is known that fertility varies with age and is particularly high in women between 20 and 30. The general fertility rate of the population may therefore be higher or lower depending on the proportion of women aged 20 to 30. For this reason planners prefer to calculate age-specific fertility rates.

• Age-specific fertility rates

Fertility rates can of course be calculated for each year of age, but in general they are given by age groups (ages 15-19, 20-24, 25- 29, etc.).

Where there is no deliberate birth control, fertility rates by age indicate the biological capability of women to bear children: the fertility rate is higher among young women and tends to fall as their age rises. In this case, it is possible to forecast the number of future births with some degree of accuracy on the basis of the age distribution of women and the fertility rate by age.

Where birth control is practiced, however, this rate becomes difficult to interpret. When the size of the family is intentionally restricted and when the births are deliberately spaced, the age of women is no longer the only factor affecting fertility. Other factors come into play, such as age at marriage, length of time married, and the number of children preceding a given birth.

The number of births has great significance for educational planners, as this number will determine the future number of pupils and students in the various levels of the education system. In most countries, educational planning is concerned with increases in the number of pupils and students, but in others – after a period of declining natality – it may involve planning for a drop in this number, a task that raises problems of similar complexity.

A decrease in the birth rate is not the only cause of a declining number of school pupils. As will be seen below, internal migration may cause a substantial drop in the rural population. In such cases, the number of pupils in rural schools will decline, resulting in under utilization of such schools, while at the same time, new schools must be built in urban areas to accommodate the children of those who have migrated to the cities. Thus, planning for an increased number of pupils in some areas may take place simultaneously with planning for decreased numbers in other areas within the same country. Declining natality is a general phenomenon observed in all countries of Western Europe. As early as the beginning of the 1950s, the general fertility rate in Germany, the United Kingdom and Sweden had fallen.

MORTALITY

A distinction can usually be made between two types of mortality, depending on the cause of death: endogenous mortality and exogenous mortality.

Endogenous mortality means death occurring from a cause which is to some extent inherent in the individual. Thus, when a child is born with deformities and dies because of these deformities, the death of that child can be declared endogenous. Deaths due to old age, or the diseases which accompany old age, can also be classified under this category.

Exogenous mortality, in contrast, refers to deaths from other causes, such as accidents, contagious diseases, and dietary deficiencies. Although this may appear to be a very clear-cut distinction, it is much less clear in practice, either because the causes of death may be unknown or not declared, or because there may be multiple causes of death. The distinction can nonetheless prove very useful. Although the progress of hygiene and medical care on the one hand, and the rise in living standards on the other, are capable of reducing exogenous mortality to a marked extent, they have very little effect on endogenous mortality. The fact is that although medical progress can prevent certain premature deaths, it cannot prolong life beyond a certain limit.

Methods of measuring mortality

The simplest way of measuring mortality is the crude death rate. This rate is obtained by dividing the total number of deaths in a specific year by the average population figure for that year. It thus resembles the crude birth rate discussed above. This rate is quite straightforward to calculate and does not require detailed mortality statistics. However, it has the same drawbacks as the crude birth rate where international comparisons are concerned. As an example, over the 1990-1995 period the crude death rate in Syria was 5.6 per thousand, while that of the United Kingdom was 9.4 per thousand. These figures give the misleading impression that the mortality level was higher in the United Kingdom than in Syria. This apparent paradox is easily explained by the fact that mortality varies greatly with age: it is low among younger people and, of course, higher for more advanced ages. The proportion of deaths in relation to the total population will therefore depend on the age structure of that population.

A youthful population such as that of Syria (i.e. a population in which the proportion of younger people is larger than that of older people) will have fewer deaths and hence a lower crude death rate than an older population.

The general nature of the crude death rate thus diminishes its significance to demographers, who – faced with the fact that the level of mortality varies substantially according to age – are inclined to calculate age-specific mortality rates. These rates obviously provide much more accurate indications of the level of mortality in a given population. Mortality rates are of course calculated separately for men and for women, for they also differ between the sexes. Most countries display excess male mortality, i.e. the mortality rate is higher for men than for women at advanced ages.

The impact of AIDS on educational development

In countries where the level of HIV infection is already high, AIDS has, of course, a considerable impact on educational development and quality. In analyzing this problem, it is appropriate to start by examining the impact of AIDS on the work and performance of teachers and its effect on student learning.

(a) The impact of AIDS on the work, performance and number of teachers

AIDS strikes young adults first, primarily the 30-40 year age group, which is the group containing the bulk of the teaching force (both men and women). Moreover, it appears that teachers are especially at risk.

In its early stages – i.e. during the primary infection stage and the asymptomatic infection stage, or latency period – HIV infection has little impact on the work performed by teachers, especially if, as is often the case, the infected person does not know that he or she is HIV-positive. The impact on teachers’ performance begins to be felt in the end stage of the infection, i.e. AIDS, when there is a considerable risk of opportunistic infections. At this stage, there is a dramatic increase in the amount of sick leave taken for periods of varying length. Even worse, AIDS leads inevitably to death, and the resulting decimation of the teaching force, trained with difficulty and at considerable expense, forms an additional barrier to the development and qualitative improvement of basic education, particularly for the poorest countries.

(b) The impact of AIDS on student learning

The frequent absence of teachers, and the lack of substitute teachers, definitely has an impact on children’s learning and achievement. Children’s learning process may also be perturbed when HIV infects a family member or friend, particularly when the infected person is one of their parents. Moreover, one of the most tragic social consequences of the rapid spread of AIDS is the huge increase in the number of orphans, who cannot always be placed in a foster home owing to the loosening of family ties, the decline in traditional mechanisms of solidarity (particularly in urban areas), the fear of incurring further expenses, and the sometimes irrational fear of contagion.