THE IMPORTANCE OF POPULATION STUDIES IN EDUCATIONAL
PLANNING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
Population structure and its effects on education
Studying the structure of a population means studying its
composition, i.e., its distribution according to certain pre-defined criteria.
Educational planners may be concerned with the distribution of the population
for various reasons. First, they may be interested in its distribution by age
and sex. This enables them to measure the relative size of the school-age
population, which is the foundation and the point of departure for any
educational policy.
Second, they may be concerned with the distribution of the
population by sector of economic activity and, within each of these sectors, by
occupation. Without accurate knowledge of the distribution by sector and
occupation, it is impossible to estimate manpower requirements, and hence to
determine targets for technical, vocational and higher education.
Third, planners may be concerned with the geographical
distribution of the population, which affects both the cost of education and
the choice of types, sizes and locations of schools.
Age structure of the population and educational development
Age structure and teacher requirements
The persistence of a high birth rate from 1945 to 1970, followed
by a drop as from 1970, has had a considerable impact on education.
More generally, whenever the birth rate falls for one reason or
another, this decrease will affect the number of children in primary education
six years later, the number in secondary school 12 years later and the number
in higher education 18 years later. Such a trend makes it easier to absorb the increased
social demand for secondary and higher education.
The structure of the population by age can yield much other
useful information for educational planning. It can be used, in particular, to
measure the relative burden of expenditures on education.
Age structure and relative burden of educational expenditures
Expenditures on education are proportionate to enrollment and
consequently depend indirectly on the school-age population, but the financing
of education can be considered as a levy on the output of the economically
active part of the population. If the school-age population is made up of
children from 5 to 14 years of age inclusive, and the active population is
recruited from persons aged 15 to 64, an estimate of the relative burden of
educational expenditures on the active population is obtained by calculating
the ratio of the 5 to 14-year-old population to the 15 to 64-year-old
population.
As earlier seen, the age structure enables us to estimate the
relative size of the school-age population. It also enables us to calculate
school enrollment rates in order to try to answer the following question: ‘What
proportion of children receive an education?’
Age structure and school enrollment rates
The gross enrollment rate is calculated as the ratio of the total
number enrolled at a given educational level to the age group corresponding
to the official age at that level. If, for example, primary education
comprises five years of schooling and the official age of admission is six
years, the gross enrollment rate in primary education is equal to:
Total number of pupils in primary education
ER Gross = ——————————————————
Total 6 to 10-year-old population
This method of calculation leads to overestimation of school enrollment: Some children may be admitted early, before the official age; while
others are over the official age, owing to either late admission or repetition
of grades.
For this reason, a net enrollment rate is also calculated:
No. of pupils 6 to 10 years of age in primary education
ER Net =
——————————————————————
Total 6 to 10-year-old population
Unfortunately, the net enrollment rate has the opposite
disadvantage as the gross rate: it underestimates enrollment rates, since all pupils
above and below the official age range are excluded.
The enrollment rate for an entire educational level, whether
gross or net, is thus not an entirely satisfactory indicator. For this reason, enrollment rates are also calculated for each year of age. The enrollment rate
for 6-year-olds, for example, is equal to:
No. of 6-year-old pupils in primary education
ER 6 years = ————————————————————
Total 6-year-old population
Enrollment rates by specific age are more precise than those by
age group, but they do not fully dispel the ambiguity. A 6-year-old enrollment
rate of less than 100 per cent does not mean that not all children are admitted
to school. Some may enter school at 7 years of age, at 8, or even later still.
Population changes and
their impact on educational planning
The study of population changes must take into account the trend
of any increase (or, in some cases, decrease) in the population over time. The
two main factors which affect this trend are natality and mortality. The combination of these two factors, plus migration, determines the changes in
the size of a population.
NATALITY
The crude birth rate
This, the simplest rate, is calculated as the ratio of the
number of live births during a year to the average population for that
year. The average population for a year can be considered either as the
population figure for 1 July of that year, or as the average of the population
figures for the beginning and the end of the year.
Note that the birth rate is given per thousand, as is
often the case for demographic rates. Although the crude birth rate has the
advantage of being a simple rate, easily obtained from general data, it
nevertheless has certain disadvantages. One of these disadvantages is that it
gives the ratio of live births to the total population, whereas, in
fact, only a part of the female population is capable of bearing
children. Consequently, the crude birth rate will vary with the structure of
the population by age and sex, or more precisely the percentage of women of
childbearing age in relation to the total population. This rate, therefore,
cannot be used to make comparisons between countries, because age structures
may be very different in one country than in another. This is why demographers
prefer to use fertility rates rather than the crude birth rate.
Fertility rates
The term ‘fertility’ is used to indicate the proportion between
the number of births and the number of women of child-bearing age. A
distinction can be made, however, between the general fertility rate and
age-specific fertility rates.
• The general fertility rate
This rate is the ratio of live births to the number of women of
child-bearing age (considered by convention to be women of 15 to 49 years). As
in the case of the crude birth rate, this rate is expressed per thousand.
One of the drawbacks of the general fertility rate is that it
does not give a detailed picture of natality. It is known that fertility varies
with age and is particularly high in women between 20 and 30. The general
fertility rate of the population may therefore be higher or lower depending on
the proportion of women aged 20 to 30. For this reason planners prefer to
calculate age-specific fertility rates.
• Age-specific fertility rates
Fertility rates can of course be calculated for each year of
age, but in general they are given by age groups (ages 15-19, 20-24, 25- 29,
etc.).
Where there is no deliberate birth control, fertility
rates by age indicate the biological capability of women to bear children: the
fertility rate is higher among young women and tends to fall as their age
rises. In this case, it is possible to forecast the number of future births
with some degree of accuracy on the basis of the age distribution of women and
the fertility rate by age.
Where birth control is practiced, however, this rate becomes
difficult to interpret. When the size of the family is intentionally restricted
and when the births are deliberately spaced, the age of women is no
longer the only factor affecting fertility. Other factors come into play, such
as age at marriage, length of time married, and the number of children
preceding a given birth.
The number of births has great significance for educational
planners, as this number will determine the future number of pupils and students
in the various levels of the education system. In most countries, educational
planning is concerned with increases in the number of pupils and students, but
in others – after a period of declining natality – it may involve planning for
a drop in this number, a task that raises problems of similar complexity.
A decrease in the birth rate is not the only cause of a
declining number of school pupils. As will be seen below, internal migration
may cause a substantial drop in the rural population. In such cases, the number
of pupils in rural schools will decline, resulting in under utilization of such
schools, while at the same time, new schools must be built in urban areas to
accommodate the children of those who have migrated to the cities. Thus,
planning for an increased number of pupils in some areas may take place
simultaneously with planning for decreased numbers in other areas within the
same country. Declining natality is a general phenomenon observed in all
countries of Western Europe. As early as the beginning of the 1950s, the
general fertility rate in Germany, the United Kingdom and Sweden had fallen.
MORTALITY
A distinction can usually be made between two types of
mortality, depending on the cause of death: endogenous
mortality and exogenous mortality.
Endogenous mortality means death
occurring from a cause which is to some extent inherent in the individual.
Thus, when a child is born with deformities and dies because of these
deformities, the death of that child can be declared endogenous. Deaths due to
old age, or the diseases which accompany old age, can also be classified under
this category.
Exogenous mortality, in contrast,
refers to deaths from other causes, such as accidents, contagious diseases, and
dietary deficiencies. Although this may appear to be a very clear-cut
distinction, it is much less clear in practice, either because the causes of
death may be unknown or not declared, or because there may be multiple causes
of death. The distinction can nonetheless prove very useful. Although the
progress of hygiene and medical care on the one hand, and the rise in living
standards on the other, are capable of reducing exogenous mortality to a marked
extent, they have very little effect on endogenous mortality. The fact is that
although medical progress can prevent certain premature deaths, it cannot
prolong life beyond a certain limit.
Methods of measuring mortality
The simplest way of measuring mortality is the crude death
rate. This rate is obtained by dividing the total number of deaths in a
specific year by the average population figure for that year. It thus resembles
the crude birth rate discussed above. This rate is quite straightforward
to calculate and does not require detailed mortality statistics.
However, it has the same drawbacks as the crude birth rate where
international comparisons are concerned. As an example, over the
1990-1995 period the crude death rate in Syria was 5.6 per thousand,
while that of the United Kingdom was 9.4 per thousand. These figures
give the misleading impression that the mortality level was higher in
the United Kingdom than in Syria. This apparent paradox is easily
explained by the fact that mortality varies greatly with age: it is low
among younger people and, of course, higher for more advanced ages. The
proportion of deaths in relation to the total population will therefore
depend on the age structure of that population.
A youthful population such as that of Syria (i.e. a population
in which the proportion of younger people is larger than that of older
people) will have fewer deaths and hence a lower crude death rate than
an older population.
The general nature of the crude death rate thus diminishes its
significance to demographers, who – faced with the fact that the level of
mortality varies substantially according to age – are inclined to calculate
age-specific mortality rates. These rates obviously provide much more accurate
indications of the level of mortality in a given population. Mortality rates
are of course calculated separately for men and for women, for they also differ
between the sexes. Most countries display excess male mortality, i.e.
the mortality rate is higher for men than for women at advanced ages.
The impact of AIDS on educational development
In countries where the level of HIV infection is already high,
AIDS has, of course, a considerable impact on educational development and
quality. In analyzing this problem, it is appropriate to start by examining the
impact of AIDS on the work and performance of teachers and its effect on
student learning.
(a) The impact of AIDS on the work, performance and number of
teachers
AIDS strikes young adults first, primarily the 30-40 year age
group, which is the group containing the bulk of the teaching force (both men
and women). Moreover, it appears that teachers are especially at risk.
In its early stages – i.e. during the primary infection stage
and the asymptomatic infection stage, or latency period – HIV infection has
little impact on the work performed by teachers, especially if, as is often the
case, the infected person does not know that he or she is HIV-positive. The
impact on teachers’ performance begins to be felt in the end stage of the
infection, i.e. AIDS, when there is a considerable risk of opportunistic
infections. At this stage, there is a dramatic increase in the amount of sick
leave taken for periods of varying length. Even worse, AIDS leads inevitably to
death, and the resulting decimation of the teaching force, trained with
difficulty and at considerable expense, forms an additional barrier to the
development and qualitative improvement of basic education, particularly for
the poorest countries.
(b) The impact of AIDS on student learning
The frequent absence of teachers, and the lack of substitute
teachers, definitely has an impact on children’s learning and achievement.
Children’s learning process may also be perturbed when HIV infects a family
member or friend, particularly when the infected person is one of their
parents. Moreover, one of the most tragic social consequences of the rapid
spread of AIDS is the huge increase in the number of orphans, who cannot always
be placed in a foster home owing to the loosening of family ties, the decline
in traditional mechanisms of solidarity (particularly in urban areas), the fear
of incurring further expenses, and the sometimes irrational fear of contagion.
